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This has not been a fun ride as of late with the POD's, but I'm on the verge of breaking out! I've never worked harder on these plays and maybe that is what is hurting me now not sure, but we will find out. Today I can't believe this line and it has gone up in a few locations, but overall the dog is moving the other way for no reason in my opinion. Granted the Rockies have been solid at home especially under Jim Tracy, but they haven't faced a pitcher like this in quite some time. A sinker ball pitcher can dominate at Coors Field and I think that's what Carpenter will do here tonight against Aaron Cook who is coming off the DL since pitching on 8/21.
Before cook went on the DL he had given up 11 ER in his last 2 starts. He has never been one to pitch well with a long period of rest. He's 0-5 in his last 5 with more than 34 days of rest. Cook pitched a gem vs. Cardinals 8IP 1 ER in early June, but he will face a very different Cardinals lineup, one that feature his old teammate Holliday. I also do not expect for Pujols to go 0-4. This is an important game for the Cardinals because they are 0-4 vs. the Rockies this year. They might have to play them in the first round and I'm sure they'd rather play the Rockies than the Dodgers so each game matters and with Cook being a little rusty I see this one going to the bullpen early a bullpen that has a 6.47 ERA last 3 games. They have a 6.53 ERA in their last 10 games, although they are scoring a plethora of runs that will not be the case against Chris Carpenter.
Carpenter has pitched better than any other pitcher on the road this year as he is 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA in his last 3 roads he has given up a total of 9 hits in 24 IP and 2 ER. He has not faced the Rockies since 2006 so that bodes well for the Rockies as it can be very difficult to make adjustments to a pitcher with stuff like Carpenter. Rockies who have faced him have a collective .188 average in 80 AB. Cardinals have enough on offense to get it done tonight, and they hit RHP much better on the road than they do LHP +.28 in average and +1.56 runs per 9 innings. Their bullpen is stronger than the Rockies home and away, and the Cardinals have an off day to work with which puts Carpenter on 5 days rest. When Carpenter is on 5 days rest he is extremely dangerous with and the Cardinals are 24-3 in his last 27 on 5 days rest. Cards also 9-1 off an off day and they have been able to regroup under Tony Larussa and understand the importance of this series not only to get ahead for home field advantage but to get a good feeling of confidence vs. the Rockies as they may very well face them in the 1st round.
Rockies are 3-8 in Cook's last 11 starts as a home dog before the injury and he has a 4.71 ERA compared to his away 4.28. The Cardinals scored 18 runs in their first two games vs. Houston only to be shut out in the 3rd game, but the Rockies and the Cook are 7-20 when a team is coming off 2 runs or less in their previous game. Cardinals are ready to hit and Carpenter is 35-9 in game 1 of a series! For the bonus, the Cardinals have won 79% of their road games by more than 1 run. Good luck Colorado!
